Social Security recipients will find out on Wednesday how much bigger their checks will be next year, and the early numbers look better than they have in a while.
The Social Security Administration is set to announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, on October 14. The leading forecasts put it at around 3.4% to 3.6%. If that holds, it would be the largest increase since the 8.7% jump in 2023, and noticeably more than the 2.8% raise beneficiaries got this year.
That’s still a forecast, not a promise. One piece of the puzzle, September’s inflation data, isn’t out yet. Here’s what we know so far, what it could mean in actual dollars, and the one thing that could eat into the raise.
What the latest estimates say
Three estimates are getting the most attention right now:
- AARP: 3.6%
- The Senior Citizens League (TSCL): 3.5%, down slightly from the 3.6% it projected in August
- Mary Johnson, independent Social Security and Medicare analyst: 3.4%, based on August inflation data
It’s worth knowing how much these numbers have moved this year. Back in the spring, when inflation jumped, TSCL was forecasting 3.9%, and Johnson’s estimate climbed as high as 4.7% in June. Inflation cooled over the summer, and the forecasts came back down with it.
So the big raise some people were hoping for earlier in the year probably isn’t coming. But a raise in the mid-3% range would still be the most generous in four years.
How it stacks up against recent years
Here’s how a mid-3% raise would compare with the last few COLAs, according to SSA’s own records:
| Year | COLA |
|---|---|
| 2027 | About 3.4%–3.6% (estimate) |
| 2026 | 2.8% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
The 8.7% raise in 2023 came after inflation hit its highest level in about 40 years, so nobody expects 2027 to come close. Still, after two years in the 2% range, a jump back above 3% will be welcome news for a lot of households.
What it could mean for your check
Percentages are hard to picture, so here’s roughly how much extra you’d get each month under the three main estimates:
| Current monthly benefit | At 3.4% | At 3.5% | At 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,000 | +$34 | +$35 | +$36 |
| $1,500 | +$51 | +$52.50 | +$54 |
| $2,071 (average retiree, Jan. 2026) | +$70 | +$72 | +$75 |
| $2,500 | +$85 | +$87.50 | +$90 |
| $3,000 | +$102 | +$105 | +$108 |
To work out your own number once the official COLA is out, just multiply your current benefit by the percentage. Keep in mind that SSA rounds monthly benefits down to the nearest dollar, and any Medicare premium taken from your check will change too. More on that below.
Why everyone is waiting on September
The COLA isn’t decided by Congress or the SSA commissioner. It comes from a set formula written into law.
Social Security takes the average of a specific inflation index, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), for July, August and September. It then compares that average with the same three months last year. The percentage difference becomes the COLA.
July and August are already known. The CPI-W was up 3.4% from a year earlier in July and 3.5% in August. The September number is the last piece, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release it at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 14. SSA usually announces the COLA the same morning.
If September comes in hotter or cooler than expected, the final figure could land a little above or below the current forecasts.
The catch: Medicare could take a bite
For most people 65 and older, the Medicare Part B premium comes straight out of their Social Security check. So when the premium goes up, part of the COLA disappears before it ever reaches your bank account.
The standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026. Early projections put it at about $209.50 for 2027, an increase of roughly $6.60. The official 2027 premium usually comes out in November.
There’s also a bigger-picture point that experts keep raising. The CPI-W measures the spending of working households, not retirees. Older Americans tend to spend more on health care and housing, and those costs often rise faster than general inflation. So even a 3.5% raise may not feel like 3.5% at the grocery store or the pharmacy.
When you’ll actually see the money
The raise doesn’t kick in right away. Here’s the timing:
- Social Security retirement, disability and survivor benefits: the new amount starts with January 2027 payments.
- SSI: January 1, 2027 is a holiday, so the January SSI payment, with the increase, should arrive a day early on December 31, 2026.
If SSA follows last year’s pattern, your personal COLA notice will show up in the Message Center of your my Social Security account in late November, with paper letters mailed in December. The notice will show your new benefit amount and any Medicare deductions.
If you don’t have an online account yet, you can set one up for free at ssa.gov/myaccount. And remember, SSA will never call, text or email asking you to pay a fee or share your Social Security number to “unlock” your COLA. If someone does, it’s a scam.
We’ll update this story with the official number as soon as SSA announces it on Wednesday.
Sources: Social Security Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-W data, and estimates from AARP,