The two numbers that decide how much the State Pension goes up next April are coming out this week. If the current figures hold, the full new State Pension will rise by about £9.40 a week, taking it past £13,000 a year for the first time.
There’s a twist, though. At that level, the full State Pension will be higher than the tax-free Personal Allowance, which has been frozen at £12,570. That’s never happened before, and it’s raising real questions about tax for pensioners on the full rate.
Here’s how the rise is worked out, what you could get, and what to watch for.
How the triple lock works
Every April, the State Pension goes up by whichever of these three is highest:
- Average earnings growth for May to July of the previous year
- Inflation (CPI) for September of the previous year
- 2.5%
This year, earnings look set to win. The first official estimate put earnings growth for May to July 2026 at 3.9%, well above the latest inflation figure of 3.1% for August.
The two dates to watch this week
- Tuesday, October 20: The Office for National Statistics publishes revised earnings figures. In recent years, the DWP has used the revised number, and it has sometimes moved slightly from the first estimate.
- Wednesday, October 21: September’s inflation figure comes out. Unless it jumps above the earnings figure, earnings will decide the rise.
After that, the Work and Pensions Secretary formally confirms the new rates, usually around the time of the Budget, which this year is on October 28. The new rates are expected to start from Monday, April 12, 2027, the first Monday of the new tax year.
What you could get from April 2027
The full new State Pension is £241.30 a week now. Here’s where it would land under the most likely outcomes:
| If the rise is… | Full new State Pension (weekly) | Per year |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5% (the minimum) | £247.35 | about £12,862 |
| 3.9% (current earnings figure) | £250.70 | about £13,036 |
| 4.0% (if earnings are revised up slightly) | £250.95 | about £13,049 |
The full basic State Pension, for people who reached State Pension age before April 6, 2016, is £184.90 a week now. At 3.9%, it would rise to about £192.10 a week, or roughly £9,989 a year.
Keep in mind these are the full rates. Many people get less, depending on their National Insurance record. The main part of your State Pension should go up by the same percentage. Any extra amounts on top, such as Additional State Pension (SERPS) or a “protected payment”, usually rise with inflation only.
The tax twist: passing the £12,570 line
The Personal Allowance, the amount of income you can have before paying income tax, has been frozen at £12,570 and is set to stay there until April 2031.
Right now, the full new State Pension of about £12,548 a year sits just below that line. From April 2027, it will almost certainly go above it, even if the rise is only the 2.5% minimum.
For most pensioners, this changes little in practice, because many already pay tax on private or workplace pensions. But it creates an awkward question for people whose only income is the full State Pension. Technically, part of that income would now be taxable.
The government has said people whose sole income is the State Pension won’t have to pay tax on it or fill in a tax return. But the details still haven’t been published, and pension experts say it’s unclear exactly who will qualify, for example if you have a small amount of savings interest. Investment platform AJ Bell has said the policy remains “mired in uncertainty.”
The Budget on October 28 is the next chance for the government to spell out how this will work.
What happens next
- This week: Earnings (Tuesday) and inflation (Wednesday) figures come out. We’ll update this story with the confirmed percentage.
- Around the Budget (October 28): The government formally announces the April 2027 rates.
- Early 2027: The new rates are written into law.
- April 12, 2027: The higher payments are expected to start.
The longer-term picture is changing too. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has proposed changing the triple lock from 2030, so the State Pension would rise by inflation or 2.5%, without the link to earnings. That wouldn’t affect next April’s rise, but it could mean smaller increases in some years later on.
If you’re not sure what you’ll get, you can check your State Pension forecast for free on GOV.UK.
Sources: AJ Bell (September 15, 2026), the Office for National Statistics and GOV.UK: The new State Pension.
Maria is a dedicated news writer covering the latest UK updates on DWP, PIP, State Pension Triple Lock, Child Benefit, Universal Credit, and driving licence regulations. She focuses on explaining government announcements, benefit eligibility, payment changes, pension increases, and new regulations in a clear and easy-to-understand way.